EIA Projects 25-38% Reduction in CO2 Emissions by 2030 and Clean Electricity to Reach 90% by 2030

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected that increased electrification, greater equipment efficiencies and more zero carbon power sources will reduce U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions through 2050. According to the EIA's projections, energy-related CO2 emissions should fall 25% to 38% below what they were in 2005 by 2030. This is driven by increased electrification, higher equipment efficiency, and the deployment of renewables in the electric sector.^[0]

High international demand for gas is expected to cause ongoing growth in U.S. production. The EIA foresees limited growth in domestic consumption, which allows the United States to remain a net exporter of petroleum products and natural gas through 2050 in all cases.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that investing in renewable sources of energy like wind and solar, as well as their low operating costs, will result in a higher percentage of zero-carbon electricity generation. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates an increase in the amount of battery capacity installed to aid the growth of renewable energy sources.^[0] Despite a transition to renewable energy sources for electricity production, domestic consumption of natural gas is still quite steady.^[1] The production of natural gas within the United States is projected to increase in response to the global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG).^[1]

The impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on overall energy-related CO2 emissions is smaller than in the electric sector.^[2] The Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that, without the Impact Reduction Act (IRA), carbon dioxide emissions related to energy would be 28% lower than 2005 levels by 2050. However, with IRA implementation, emissions in the energy sector would decrease by 34% in that same time frame.^[2]

A report has determined that the Inflation Reduction Act and the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law could significantly raise the share of clean electricity from 41 percent in 2022 to between 71 percent and 90 percent by 2030.^[3] Clean electricity is projected to reach as high as 90% by 2030, according to the mid-case assumptions. Much of the projected increase in carbon-free electricity would come in the form of solar and wind, which is projected to reach between 40 percent and 62 percent of total power generation by the end of the decade.^[3]

Analysts from the EIA anticipate that clean energy and clean electricity will see significant expansion in the years ahead. Analysts from the EIA estimate that by 2050, clean cars are projected to comprise less than 20% of the total auto market in the EV space.^[4] Motor gasoline and diesel fuel are still in demand for 2050.^[4]

0. “Multiple factors to reduce carbon emissions through 2050, EIA says” talkbusiness.net, 16 Mar. 2023, https://talkbusiness.net/2023/03/multiple-factors-to-reduce-carbon-emissions-through-2050-eia-says/

1. “EIA Sees LNG Exports At Least Doubling by 2050 as Demand Holds Steady, Though Unknowns Abound” Natural Gas Intelligence, 17 Mar. 2023, https://www.naturalgasintel.com/eia-sees-lng-exports-at-least-doubling-by-2050-as-demand-holds-steady-though-unknowns-abound/

2. “IRA slashes power sector CO2, but has smaller impact elsewhere: US EIA” S&P Global, 17 Mar. 2023, https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/031723-ira-slashes-power-sector-co2-but-has-smaller-impact-elsewhere-us-eia

3. “Analysis: US grid could be 90 percent carbon-free by 2030 with IRA tax credits” The Hill, 16 Mar. 2023, https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3904098-analysis-us-grid-could-be-90-carbon-free-by-2030-with-ira-tax-credits

4. “U.S. oil production will remain ‘historically high? through 2050 ? new government report” Autoblog, 17 Mar. 2023, https://www.autoblog.com/2023/03/17/us-oil-petroleum-production-historically-high-through-2050-eia-government-report/